Tonight's main bet is a 0.5pt TRIXIE that returns 8.83pts on the following selections:
- Watford to beat Preston @ 4/6
- Exeter to beat Swindon @ 21/20
- Oldham to beat Carlisle @ EVENS
- Aris to not lose against Manchester City @ 7/5
- Birmingham vs Newcastle - Total goals UNDER 2.5 @ 4/6
Watford to beat Preston is according to the bookies a reasonably safe bet, however, Preston are improving and after Watford's loss at the weekend at home to Burnley the odds should be a little higher in my opinion. That aside I still think that Watford will take all 3 points tonight. They have averaged 1.53 points at home this season but more importantly Preston have only averaged 0.64 points per game away from Deepdale and haven't won in 9 away games. Watford will bounce back tonight in my opinion.
Exeter City look terrific value at odds of 21/20 to beat lowly Swindon Town tonight and at those odds you can't avoid choosing this selection. Although Exeter have lost their last 2 homes games they were against Huddersfield and Southampton who are both promotion contenders this year. Despite those losses Exeter still have averaged 1.80 points per home game this season whereas Swindon have averaged only 0.67 points away from home. Swindon have also lost 5 on the bounce away from the County Ground and Exeter will prove to be too much for them.
At EVENS, Oldham to beat Carlisle is also great value but it will be a tight game tonight. Paul Dickov's men have averaged 1.80 points per game at home this season but haven't lost in 7 games, home or away, and Carlisle bring with them 3 losses in a row, including a 3-1 loss to lowly Walsall in Cumbria. Carlisle also haven't scored in their last 4 games away to Oldham so the selection must be made at those odds.
From my other bets, Aris to not lose at home to Manchester City could come back to haunt me tonight but at those odds the selection had to be made. Aris have yet to lose a european home tie in 40 years (24 games) and you can't ignore that fact even if it is City visiting tonight. City themselves only won 1 out of their 3 away games in the group stages so I am not too sure why the bookies are putting them as such strong favourites, particularly as Mancini will rotate his squad. I could be proved wrong but at those odds it needs to be taken.
Finally we return to the Premiership and it's Birmingham at home to Newcastle. The bookies predict a low scoring affair, as per their 4/6 odds, and I agree. Unless a miracle happens, and by miracle I mean another Leon Best hattrick, then I can't see too many goals in this one. Both are solid to beat but both do not have the firepower up front to score 2+ goals every game. It may change tonight but hopefully there will be no upset here tonight.
Over and out!
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