November & December's form meant that we ended the year on a sour note but I've had a good think of why this is and will make minor amendments to my tips for 2012.
Firstly, I shall be narrow my selections down to no more than 3 in any one day to ensure that I am studying the form and stats to the maximum. I shall still offer accumulators but my main budget will be allocated to smaller singles, doubles and potentially some trebles as well.
I have maintained a decent selection success rate but as I have been chasing too many fourfolds & fivefolds I have been consistently been let down by one selection and not getting my rewards when getting 3 out of 4 correct.
That's the main tweak going forward in 2012 to start with but obviously I shall keep an eye out for any other potential improvements.
Monday 2nd January
I have two main selections that I shall be placing in today's main bet which is a 4pt DOUBLE that returns 13.74pts. My main picks for today are:
- Fulham vs Arsenal - Total goals OVER 2.5 @ 10/11 - Barclays Premier League
- Charlton Athletic to beat Brentford @ 4/5 - nPower League 1
I will also be placing my Charlton Athletic pick in with the four picks below to create a secondary 1pt FIVEFOLD bet that returns 10.50pts:
- Charlton Athletic to beat Brentford @ 4/5 - nPower League 1
- Sheffield Wednesday to beat Tranmere Rovers @ 4/7 - nPower League 1
- Shrewsbury Town to beat Northampton Town @ 8/15 - nPower League 2
- Southend United to beat Dagenham & Redbridge @ 8/13 - nPower League 2
- Swindon Town to beat AFC Wimbledon @ 1/2 - nPower League 2
That's a total stake of 5pts for today with a maximum potential return of 24.24pts.
Analysis
** Fulham vs Arsenal - Total goals OVER 2.5 @ 10/11 - Barclays Premier League **
We are looking for 3 goals or more tonight in the Barclays Premier League game between Fulham & Arsenal with William Hill offering odds of 10/11 which in my opinion are too good to turn down.
They are 10/11 for a reason as this game, according the stats, isn't a nailed on dead cert to have 3 goals or more but I do have confidence. 55% of Fulham's home games have had over .5 goals and they bodes well with Arsenal's away form which has seen 77.8% of their away games have over 2.5 goals.
The recent form has seen 2 of Fulham's last 4 games have over 2.5 goals and Arsenal have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4 games on the road.
Last year this fixture finished 2-2 and the last 4 meetings between the two sides have produced 13 goals so I am taking the 10/11 odds with a decent amount of confidence.
** Charlton Athletic to beat Brentford @ 4/5 - nPower League 1
Some punters might be surprised to see run away League 1 leaders Charlton Athletic be as long as 4/5 with William Hill to win a league game at home when they are unbeaten at the Valley in the competition, but I am not.
Brentford have lost just once on the road in League 1 this season (back in August) and have lost just once in their last 9 games in total. That was, however, against Charlton Athletic at Griffin Park and I am confident that Charlton will take the honours again in a tight game.
Brentford may appear to be on a decent run but have only won once in their last 6 games and I feel that Charlton will just have too much firepower today.
Charlton have scored 12 goals in their last 4 home games and that compares well against Brentford's last 4 away games that have seen them score just 4 goals. Furthermore the goal stats for both sides this season back up Charlton's claim for the 3 points today.
Charlton have scored 2.4 goals on average this season conceding just 0.8. Brentford have also conceded an average of 0.8 goals a game but have scored just 1.2 goals.
I will therefore take a Charlton win alongside the Fulham/Arsenal game to have over 2.5 goals to make a 4pt DOUBLE that returns 13.74pts.
Let's hope for a good start to the new year!
** Please do not use my bets yourselves as you should always be responsible for your own betting. However, if you decide to use my bets, please ensure that you only bet with money that you can afford to lose. **
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